“I am no longer the villain of this league” – Under the Influwentz Front Office

I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but I don’t think I’ll ever miss a weekly newsletter again. I’m even a day early this week.

Now in my last edition, I threw some not-so-subtle shade on our league’s current format. I’m not here to apologize for it, but the arguments I was planning to make in support of my current stance were disproven by the data that our league has produced thus far. I’m sorry to those on the anti-2QB brigade, but we will have to make our arguments from another angle. I’ll start coming up with ideas now.

Fair warning: lots of stats in this edition of the newsletter. I did my calculations in front of an oversight committee and am happy to make my methodology public upon request.

Playoff Odds heading into Week 7:

PROJ. RANK	TEAM	CURRENT RECORD	PROJ. RECORD	RANK CHANGE	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHAMPION
1	[default name]	6-0	10-3	—	>99%	13%
2	Taylor Tunnels	5-1	9-4	—	99%	14%
3	With Lamarms Wide Open	4-2	8-5	—	94%	12%
4	Dad’s Team	4-2	8-5	—	93%	12%
5	Koo d’éCarr	3-3	7-6	—	87%	13%
6	Kamara Kart Double Dash	3-3	7-6	—	83%	10%
7	Staff(ord) of Power	2-4	6-7	+3	61%	8%
8	Kyler? I hardly know her	2-4	5-8	-1	56%	5%
9	It’s Miller Time	2-4	5-8	-1	55%	7%
10	Under the Influwentz	2-4	5-8	-1	36%	3%
11	Greendale Human Beings	2-4	5-8	—	27%	2%
12	jeffyoder	1-5	4-9	—	9%	<1%

Not a lot of movement in the playoff projections this week. 2nd through 6th place is the most contested set of positions as we get into the second half of our regular season. The bottom two playoff spots will be a battleground as well, but for our top and bottom 2 teams, their tickets to the playoffs have either been punched or pitched.

Facts don’t care about your feelings.

This is a humbling section to write.

After my frustration last week, I set out to answer a very simple question: how often does having better QBs help you win games?

The answer itself seemed obvious on the surface. My guess was that in 80% of matchups, the team with a higher scoring pair of QBs would win the game. I was sadly mistaken. The number ended up closer to 50%. After spending the next few hours double and triple checking the data, making comparisons based on QB Rank at each week instead of points scored, and auto-submitting best possible lineups, I was left at just under a 50% correlation.

“Well”, I said to Max on a Discord call at 1AM, “that can’t be the whole story”. Surely that correlation was much higher than a similar calculation based on Running backs or Wide Receivers. It was not.

The table below shows the number of matchups through week 6 that were won by the team with the higher scoring players at the following positions. For RBs and WRs, I did one comparison with only the RB1&2 and only the WR1&2, then another set of comparisons around All RBs started and all WRs started. I want to run the numbers of RB1&2 + FLEX, but ran out of time this morning.

Position	Wins (out of 36)	% Of Matchups Won
QB	15	41.67%
2RB	25	69.44%
2WR	24	66.67%
All-RB	21	58.33%
All-WR	22	61.11%
DEF	21	58.33%
TE	22	61.11%
K	9	25.00%

To my absolute shock, the only position less correlated to winning a matchup other than QB was a team’s Kicker.

The chart shows that in a given matchup where one team’s QBs score a combined total higher than their opponent, that team only wins the matchup 41% of the time. This, compared to a position like RB where outscoring your opponent in the position leads to a victory nearly 70% of the time, makes me believe that the QB position is much flatter than I had originally thought.

The Superflex slot still feels like it should only ever have a QB in it, and it still feels like it makes waivers and trades stale, but it doesn’t seem to sway wins and points as I had expected thus-far.

In order to try and remove matchup luck, I then ran the numbers on how many times a given top-6 scoring team on a week also was a top-6 scoring team from the QB position. I then repeated for total RB and total WR points.

Position	Occurances	% of Top6 Appearances
QB	22	61.11%
RB	21	58.33%
WR	21	58.33%

Just over 60% of the time, a Top6 scoring team on a given week will be in the Top6 in QB points scored as well. I thought this was the smoking gun, until i saw that it was only 3% higher than the same calculation on the RB and WR positions.

I’ll still be keeping an eye on these stats over the coming weeks but with a less specific agenda in mind. I’m hoping for a competitive league, and it seems like this still is one. RB is still the most valuable position in the league, followed by WR, TE, DEF and then finally QB.

Let’s look forward with a renewed understanding of what wins games and dive into our Week 7 matchups.

Sponsored by Fantasypros

This week starts out with a matchup brought to you by the experts at fantasypros.com

Both staunch believers in statistics and their ability to build a solid team, Staff(ord) of Power and It’s Miller Time get an opportunity to see who has more time to refresh the Waiver Assistant page thus far into the season.

The teams are even across all positions except for TE, where It’s Miller Time has a clear advantage in George Kittle. This matchup should be extremely close and should give the winner room to breathe as we move towards the back half of the season.

Projection: Staff(ord) of Power ~ It’s Miller Time (50%)

A Disaster We Can’t Stop Watching vs. Bye Bye Bye (Bye Bye) [Bye]

A chance at a win comes for a team that couldn’t need it more where Kyler, I Hardly Know Her? Faces off against Lamarms Wide Open.

The NFL Bye weeks have shuffled to a point where Lamarms has 6 players on By this week. His depleted corps will look to the the waiver wire for relief this evening, and if the GM can’t adjust enough KIHKH should be able to win this matchup without checking his lineup at all.

Projection: Kyler, I Hardly Know Her? > With Lamarms Wide Open (70%)

A Player’s GM vs. Kickers Are People Too

The GM of the Richert Alliance has stated that he intends to “Dance with the person that brought him.” For better or worse, and it’s been only better so far, he is sticking with the players that he’s drafted. If he isn’t taken down this week, the team will cruise to 10-0 without breaking a sweat.

Looking to bring the USSRichert back down to earth, Taylor Tunnels has the talent to do it. Of the matchups won with a higher scoring kicker, Taylor Tunnels takes credit of 1/3 of them. Will Will Lutz carry his team over the greatest challenge they’ve faced thus far? I can only hope so.

Projection: Taylor Tunnels < [default name] (52.7%)

10 Cent Beer Night

The owners of Under the Influwentz are scrambling for gimmicks to bring in fans as they walk toward one of the most lopsided matchups this week. There isn’t much to say other than acknowledging UTI is outmatched at all positions except for WR, which doesn’t bode well for his chances at a win this week. The GM of Kamara Kart Double Dash should take the week off and start watching film for Week 8, it’ll be more helpful than taking time to prepare for his Week 7 bout.

Projection: Under the Influwentz < Kamara Kart Double Dash (66.9%)

Fantasy Day Trader vs. I See Your Value Now

In a shock to this writer, Koo d’éCarr’s management has been one of the more active trading partners for the league this season. With a team he can be proud of, the GM of the team faces down an organization trying to clear a path toward the playoffs. Without an enormous mistake on the waiver wire tonight, Koo d’éCarr has all of the opportunity to get to a record above .500.

A tale of two trading teams brings us to the other side of this matchup, where other GMs have seen the value in players that the Greendale Human Beings have developed and taken them for their own gain just before big weeks. I have faith that the analytics department for this organization has grand projections, but without a win in the next two weeks, it might be time to look toward next season.

Projection: Koo d’éCarr > Greendale Human Beings (54.9%)

Everything must Go vs. For Real This Year

The Front Office of Dad’s Team has flirted with success every season, but this year they seem to have it down. Nearly a lock for the playoffs already, this squad is poised to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Barely even a blip on their radar, Dad’s Team’s opponent this week is preparing their hibernation before next season. If you’re out of the running this year and are looking to acquire a keeper, take a look through Team Jeffyoder’s IR slots and see if something would fit nicely on your roster next season.

Projection: Dad’s Team > Team Jeffyoder (57.6%)

This was a very stats-heavy edition of the newsletter, and if you’ve made it this far, I appreciate it.

Good luck to all.

Wow. What a week of upsets and injuries. The power landscape of the league has shifted dramatically and many projected victories turned into defeats. Win or lose, injuries are going to be the main focus going into week 3, and hope that none of your players are traveling to MetLife Stadium any time soon #StickyTurf.

Playoff Odds heading into Week 3:

#	Team	Playoff Odds	Projected Record	Rank Change (Prev)
1	Team crichert1	97%	8-6	+2 (3)
2	Dad’s Team	90%	8-6	+6 (8)
3	Staff(ord) of Power	90%	8-6	-1 (2)
4	Taylor Tunnels	81%	7-7	— (4)
5	Under the Influwentz	75%	7-7	+5 (10)
6	Kamara Kart Double Dash	75%	7-7	+1 (7)
7	Koo d’eCarr	73%	6-8	-6 (1)
8	With Lamarms Wide Open	72%	6-8	-2 (6)
9	It’s Miller Time	52%	6-8	— (9)
10	Football Team	44%	5-9	+1 (11)
11	Greendale Human Beings	32%	6-8	+1 (12)
12	Team Jeff Yoder	18%	4-10	-7 (5)

The future of our league is in flux through week 2, with many teams making strides to climb up the rankings ladder, while others dropped faster than a third wester hiding from a melon-carrying PA. Expect these rankings to change dramatically through Week 5.

Transparency Report

Let’s get this out in the air: projections can be wrong. Last week, the newsletter correctly predicted 50% of the matchups. Some of the writers on staff may have been overly critical of Under the Influwentz’s decisions, and hats off to you on your first of 4 victories this season. Enjoy each one while it lasts.

Week 3 Redraft

We had 11 waiver claims this week, so I’m just going to consider this round 16 of the draft, one that I was happy not to participate in. All teams except for Team Crichert1 have holes to fill for the next few weeks, 4 of the biggest listed below.

Christian McCaffery – Koo d’eCarr – Out 4 to 6 Weeks

Saquon Barkley – Team Jeff Yoder – Season-ending ACL Tear

Courtland Sutton – Taylor Tunnels – Season-ending ACL Tear

Jimmy Garoppolo – It’s Miller Time – High Ankle Sprain, likely several weeks

Drafts that looked safe and secure Week 1 now look foolish and quality runningbacks are in as short of a supply as ever. Excuse me while I send 80 square yards of bubble wrap to Ezekiel Elliott and we dive into our matchups for the week.

Addicted to Power Rankings vs. Team Who Shall Not Be Named

The front office leadership of Team Crichert1 refuses to give the people what they want and is still rocking a default name. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, Team Crichert1 has put all of their attention into putting up the most points of any league so far. This is not a team to be overlooked, much like their QB3 Phillip Rivers.

Staff(ord) of Power has taken hold of the power rankings both in Week 3 and Rest of Season, but we have all seen projections tumble over the past few days. This is a get-right matchup of the highest pedigree for the Staff(ord) Front Office.

Projection: Staff(ord) of Power > Team Crichert1 (57.4%)

Up and Coming vs. 2021 1st Overall Pick

In a world where Week 2 went bad for a lot of people, it couldn’t have gone much worse for those in management at Team Jeff Yoder. My heart goes out to the players that have to show up for symbolic games the rest of the season. Short of a season-defining trade, the road to the playoffs is all but impossible for the heartbreak-stricken team.

A rising star of the 2020 season is found in our contender, and Kamara Kart Double Dash should be able to coast to a very comfortable 2-1 record through the first three weeks of the season. A run through the playoffs is looking strong for the second-season competitor.

Projection: Team Jeff Yoder < Kamara Kart Double Dash (59.6%)

FAAB-ulous vs Suffering from Success

Koo d’eCarr looked like an absolute juggernaut coming out of the draft this year. Their team was up 11 points over the second-ranked competitor. At least one writer on the staff was getting ready to mortgage the future just to put up a roster that could have competed with the Exodia-like staff that Koo had assembled.

Fast forward to today, and the team is a shell of its former self. While they will still benefit from a DeAndre Hopkins that is exceeding expectations with no signs of slowing down, their path to the playoffs took a sharp right down a double black diamond. Owners should be on the lookout to see if team leadership can stick the landing, or if they’ll end up entering next season with nothing but a first-round keeper to show for it.

Taylor Tunnels made it all the way until Week 3 this season before unloading almost all of their FAAB on a Tight End and Runningback. Darrell Henderson has every opportunity to succeed this year, and Taylor Tunnels’ Front Office is a full believer.

Projection: Koo d’eCarr < Taylor Tunnels (55.3%%)

Started From the Bottom vs. Mike Gesicki Fan Club President

In a matchup that looked unwinnable from every possible angle, Under the Influwentz did the impossible and took down the championship-favorite Staff(ord) of Power in spectacular fashion. Not even being on the losing side of a trade could stop what the writing staff at JPMFF Newz have dubbed the Team of Destiny. Will UTI (still can’t believe you stuck with a team that has that acronym) defy their original power ranking and make a run for the playoffs again this year? We certainly think so.

A team that immediately shed their appearance of weakness, Kyler? I hardly know Her has had the terrible luck of having the most points scored against them through the opening of the season. Teams should not approach a matchup with this dark horse squad lightly, as they have demonstrated they can outscore anyone. Well, almost anyone.

Projection: Kyler? I hardly know Her > Under the Influwentz (67.1%)

Flashes of Greatness vs. The Office Season 3

If Team Jeff Yoder was left up the river without a paddle by injuries this week, It’s Miller Time is trying to figure out how to row with slotted spoons. Devastated by injuries at RB, TE and QB, people are waiting to see if the trade reactions will be proportional or if It’s Miller Time is willing to sell this season for a speedboat next year.

The addition of new cast members, a rejuvenated leading man and a stable of co-trade-writers have set up Greendale Human Beings for success. While they still lack players of the pedigree needed to compete with league leaders, a postseason is very much within grasp for fans of the team.

Projection: Greendale Human Beings > It’s Miller Time (61.1%)

Fantasy Cheat Code vs. Brady Bunch

Our marquee matchup of the week goes to Lamarms Wide Open and Dad’s Team.

Both organizations have a stable of top-tier players at every position. Even with the letdown of last week, it’s hard to believe Lamarms won’t be favored in every matchup this week due to their QB1. That said, key defensive matchups have the organization facing the reality of a 1-2 start, putting pressure on the team’s leadership to make the right starts this week.

Dad’s Team has climbed in both power rankings and in the projected standings. The teams future truly hinges on whether or not Tom Brady can continue the revenge tour he started in Week 2 or if we will see a return to form for the soon-to-be AARP member.

Projection: Dad’s Team > With Lamarms Wide Open (55.2%)

Please beat Parker. I need a legitimate platform to trash talk him from.

Good luck to all.

We finally return to the highs, lows, injuries, and breakouts of a fantasy football season and it brings a tear to my eye. With week 1 in the books, owners have cemented their reputation as overperformers or underdogs for the remainder of the season. One only has to remember Under the Influwentz’s rise from a 40% shot at playoffs last season to competing in the finals to know that nothing is over until it’s over.

Let’s overreact

Playoff Odds heading into Week 2:

Team	Playoff Odds	Projected Record
Munney	84%	9-5
Staff(ord) of Power	84%	9-5
Team crichert1	70%	8-6
Team samschuette	58%	7-7
Team jeffyoder	53%	7-7
With Lamarms Wide Open	49%	7-7
Team joeschuette	45%	7-7
Dad’s Team	45%	7-7
It’s Miller Time	43%	7-7
Under the Influwentz	34%	6-8
Football Team	22%	6-8
Greendale Human Beings	13%	5-9

The first thing that you should take away from these rankings is the number of default team names that still exist in the league.

After you’ve grappled with that, managers should use this information to motivate underperforming players as we prepare for an incredible – and much more balanced – slate of matchups in week 2 of the JPMFFL.

Championship Rematch with Predictable Outcomes

We start off our week 2 preview with what should be a clash of the titans.

Unfortunately for fans of the game, the Front Office of Under the Influwentz seems to be repeating their strategy from last season of feigning incompetance to focus the league’s attention on other teams while they make acquisitions throughout the season in an attempt to make another playoff run. This matchup will reinforce this theory as Staff(ord) of Power is set to run away with a victory this week.

Projection: Staff(ord) of Power > Under the Influwentz (65%)

Stiff Brees vs. Hunting for Glory

Sophomore Team Joeschuette attempts to take down highest-ranked Team Munney in a David-vs-Goliath matchup.

Team Joeschuette unfortunately lost a large piece of their offensive plan with Le’Veon Bell going down for “at least eight games.” The team still boasts an impressive stack of Watson – Brees at QB and SFlex and with the breakout potential of John Brown and Travis Kelce, there is still a chance that Team Munney doesn’t run away with this win as is currently projected in Sleeper. That said, going agains CMC, Hopkins, and Thielen is a tough task for anyone in the league.

Projection: Team Munney > Team Joeschuette (54%)

Mahomes is where the Heart is vs. Taylathon

Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme, Team Jeffyoder and going 0-2 in the early season.

This time around, Team Jeffyoder’s Front Office is plagued by injuries and tough matchups more than anything else. Marlon Mack – a potentially huge sleeper – is now out for the season, leaving the management with the tough decision of starting Sony Michel in RB2 or just leaving the slot empty to avoid the disappoint of a Patriots running back in fantasy.

Johnathan Taylor is looking like the steal of the draft, and Team Samschuette’s staff is confident in the player heading into a feast of a matchup against Minnesota this weekend. This matchup isn’t as clear-cut as it looks on paper, since Mahomes and Barkley have the ability to outscore anyone, but it will be an uphill climb for the Jeffyoders this week.

Projection: Team Jeffyoder < Team Samschuette (57.3%)

[Team Name Pun] vs. Another Default Team Name

Team Crichert1’s social media showed a rare glimpse at cockiness in the midst of their matchup against Under the Influwentz in week 1. Is this a sign of a change in management strategy compared to the dynasty the team has established in the past? Is the name change from Cuttino Mobley Dream Team to blame? Only time will tell.

Both managers have made moves on the waiver wire during the week, picking up pieces to fill the gaps in their teams. The question on everyone’s mind is whether or not Football Team’s management can choose the right players to start this week, or if they will leave another victory on the bench. The scoring potential of the Football Team is as high as anyone else’s in the league, but Team Crichert1 faces far easier matchups during the week with both QBs facing a bottom-12 defense.

Projection: Football Team < Team Crichert1 (58%)

Post-Hype Sleeper vs. A New Identity

It’s Miller Time is out to prove that year 1 in the JPMFFL was just a fluke.  Their roster is strong and Aaron Rodgers looks to be on a revenge tour to start the season.  With their QB1 that no longer looks like a reach set to go against the swiss cheese that is the Detroit Lions secondary, it will be up to Michael Thomas’ replacements to win this matchup.

Dad’s Team is continuing the legacy of starting off strong and is on the way to securing a playoff spot before the midpoint of the season.  His faith in Tom Brady this season may prove to be costly, but if Miles Sanders or James Connor can stay healthy to play a supporting role to Derrick Henry, this team can beat anyone.  

Projection: Dad’s Team > It’s Miller Time (52.9%)

Best Team Name vs. Community Season 4

Greendale Human Beings has a lineup that is great on paper and performed incredibly well last season, but doesn’t look like it is set up to shine this year. The absence of what stood to make the team special – Kenny Golladay – leaves the team moving forward at a much slower pace than we expected at the end of the draft.

Lamarms Wide Open is poised and ready to capitalize on this matchup and go undefeated through the first two weeks of the season with the second-largest percentage of victory this week. With the pickup of Dallas Goedert and the fantasy cheat code that is Lamar Jackson ready to go for their games, this matchup is all but settled before a single snap is played.

Projection: With Lamars Wide Open > Greendale Human Beings (63.3%)

Please set actual team names this week, it could turn your seasons around.

Good luck to all.

In a meme-filled monstrosity of a week, tables have been turned in a number of key matchups. With all but 3 teams having a vested interest in the primetime showdown between the Chargers and Chiefs, there are some realistic and not-realistic miracles to hope for.

Captain Insano’s Wild Ride

The Front Office of Hulu Has Live Sports spent much of Sunday afternoon trying to draw attention away from the fact that their team was hotter garbage than the Hindenburg this weekend. Insano is projected to win by nearly 12 points, and the only hope that HHLS has is that Mahomes falls under the same voodoo curse that got Jameis Winston this week. As exciting as the matchup will be, it ultimately means nothing as Insano has been eliminated from the playoffs, and Hulu has already locked in a spot.

Imagine playing a TE that catches fewer than 2 TD’s (This title was brought to you by the Ross Dwelley gang)

In another ultimately meaningless exhibition for two playoff-locked teams, Todd Gurley’s Cat would need to regrow their front claws in order to get a handhold back in this matchup. In order to win tonight, Hunter Henry would need 4 TD Receptions and 200 passing yards, or 6 TD’s and 55 yards. If I somehow lose this matchup, I’ll drop John Brown.

Dak Attack

As someone hoping to secure first place in the league, I’m hoping for a return to form for Keenan Allen tonight where he puts up a total of 5 points, but I’m guessing that won’t happen. Aside from Keenan Allen re-acquiring the Yips, KeKe needs Damien Williams, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins to combine for at least 4 Touchdowns and 200 yards in order to clinch a playoff spot.

David Johnson: the King of Consistency

A tale as old as time, David Johnson and the Donut.  With a high mark of .2 over the last 5 weeks, Miller Time is hoping that Melvin Gordon has trouble starting the engine this week and that Mike Williams can out-touchdown the Chargers’ RB1.  This game means playoffs for both teams, and a loss for either nearly relegates them from the playoffs, especially if our last MNF hopeful pulls out the win.

The Gang Learns a Lesson about Jinxes

Many said it couldn’t be done, and a few even tried to insure it; but like a telemarketer selling investment vehicles, Under the Influwentz has maintained their resolve. The management team’s retreat to Mexico has clearly paid dividends, allowing their players to compete in a relaxed, pressure-free environment this week. The Greendale Human Beings need an RB2 and a Kicker to outscore Travis Kelce by 15 points. Over the course of the season, that has happened in the following weeks:

Week	Ekeler	Badgley	Kelce
1	36.4	0	10.3
7	22	0	7.4
9	11.3	15	9.7

This is the final countdown, and the matchup means more to UTI’s (great acronym by the way) Front Office than any of us could possibly imagine. Be sure to get your memes ready with a win or loss by the franchise. A note: if Greendale wins, it almost certainly means that Melvin and Gourd takes the “L” against Miller Time.