Rock, Paper, Running backs

I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but I don’t think I’ll ever miss a weekly newsletter again. I’m even a day early this week.

Now in my last edition, I threw some not-so-subtle shade on our league’s current format. I’m not here to apologize for it, but the arguments I was planning to make in support of my current stance were disproven by the data that our league has produced thus far. I’m sorry to those on the anti-2QB brigade, but we will have to make our arguments from another angle. I’ll start coming up with ideas now.

Fair warning: lots of stats in this edition of the newsletter. I did my calculations in front of an oversight committee and am happy to make my methodology public upon request.

Playoff Odds heading into Week 7:

PROJ. RANK	TEAM	CURRENT RECORD	PROJ. RECORD	RANK CHANGE	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHAMPION
1	[default name]	6-0	10-3	—	>99%	13%
2	Taylor Tunnels	5-1	9-4	—	99%	14%
3	With Lamarms Wide Open	4-2	8-5	—	94%	12%
4	Dad’s Team	4-2	8-5	—	93%	12%
5	Koo d’éCarr	3-3	7-6	—	87%	13%
6	Kamara Kart Double Dash	3-3	7-6	—	83%	10%
7	Staff(ord) of Power	2-4	6-7	+3	61%	8%
8	Kyler? I hardly know her	2-4	5-8	-1	56%	5%
9	It’s Miller Time	2-4	5-8	-1	55%	7%
10	Under the Influwentz	2-4	5-8	-1	36%	3%
11	Greendale Human Beings	2-4	5-8	—	27%	2%
12	jeffyoder	1-5	4-9	—	9%	<1%

Not a lot of movement in the playoff projections this week. 2nd through 6th place is the most contested set of positions as we get into the second half of our regular season. The bottom two playoff spots will be a battleground as well, but for our top and bottom 2 teams, their tickets to the playoffs have either been punched or pitched.

Facts don’t care about your feelings.

This is a humbling section to write.

After my frustration last week, I set out to answer a very simple question: how often does having better QBs help you win games?

The answer itself seemed obvious on the surface. My guess was that in 80% of matchups, the team with a higher scoring pair of QBs would win the game. I was sadly mistaken. The number ended up closer to 50%. After spending the next few hours double and triple checking the data, making comparisons based on QB Rank at each week instead of points scored, and auto-submitting best possible lineups, I was left at just under a 50% correlation.

“Well”, I said to Max on a Discord call at 1AM, “that can’t be the whole story”. Surely that correlation was much higher than a similar calculation based on Running backs or Wide Receivers. It was not.

The table below shows the number of matchups through week 6 that were won by the team with the higher scoring players at the following positions. For RBs and WRs, I did one comparison with only the RB1&2 and only the WR1&2, then another set of comparisons around All RBs started and all WRs started. I want to run the numbers of RB1&2 + FLEX, but ran out of time this morning.

Position	Wins (out of 36)	% Of Matchups Won
QB	15	41.67%
2RB	25	69.44%
2WR	24	66.67%
All-RB	21	58.33%
All-WR	22	61.11%
DEF	21	58.33%
TE	22	61.11%
K	9	25.00%

To my absolute shock, the only position less correlated to winning a matchup other than QB was a team’s Kicker.

The chart shows that in a given matchup where one team’s QBs score a combined total higher than their opponent, that team only wins the matchup 41% of the time. This, compared to a position like RB where outscoring your opponent in the position leads to a victory nearly 70% of the time, makes me believe that the QB position is much flatter than I had originally thought.

The Superflex slot still feels like it should only ever have a QB in it, and it still feels like it makes waivers and trades stale, but it doesn’t seem to sway wins and points as I had expected thus-far.

In order to try and remove matchup luck, I then ran the numbers on how many times a given top-6 scoring team on a week also was a top-6 scoring team from the QB position. I then repeated for total RB and total WR points.

Position	Occurances	% of Top6 Appearances
QB	22	61.11%
RB	21	58.33%
WR	21	58.33%

Just over 60% of the time, a Top6 scoring team on a given week will be in the Top6 in QB points scored as well. I thought this was the smoking gun, until i saw that it was only 3% higher than the same calculation on the RB and WR positions.

I’ll still be keeping an eye on these stats over the coming weeks but with a less specific agenda in mind. I’m hoping for a competitive league, and it seems like this still is one. RB is still the most valuable position in the league, followed by WR, TE, DEF and then finally QB.

Let’s look forward with a renewed understanding of what wins games and dive into our Week 7 matchups.

Sponsored by Fantasypros

This week starts out with a matchup brought to you by the experts at fantasypros.com

Both staunch believers in statistics and their ability to build a solid team, Staff(ord) of Power and It’s Miller Time get an opportunity to see who has more time to refresh the Waiver Assistant page thus far into the season.

The teams are even across all positions except for TE, where It’s Miller Time has a clear advantage in George Kittle. This matchup should be extremely close and should give the winner room to breathe as we move towards the back half of the season.

Projection: Staff(ord) of Power ~ It’s Miller Time (50%)

A Disaster We Can’t Stop Watching vs. Bye Bye Bye (Bye Bye) [Bye]

A chance at a win comes for a team that couldn’t need it more where Kyler, I Hardly Know Her? Faces off against Lamarms Wide Open.

The NFL Bye weeks have shuffled to a point where Lamarms has 6 players on By this week. His depleted corps will look to the the waiver wire for relief this evening, and if the GM can’t adjust enough KIHKH should be able to win this matchup without checking his lineup at all.

Projection: Kyler, I Hardly Know Her? > With Lamarms Wide Open (70%)

A Player’s GM vs. Kickers Are People Too

The GM of the Richert Alliance has stated that he intends to “Dance with the person that brought him.” For better or worse, and it’s been only better so far, he is sticking with the players that he’s drafted. If he isn’t taken down this week, the team will cruise to 10-0 without breaking a sweat.

Looking to bring the USSRichert back down to earth, Taylor Tunnels has the talent to do it. Of the matchups won with a higher scoring kicker, Taylor Tunnels takes credit of 1/3 of them. Will Will Lutz carry his team over the greatest challenge they’ve faced thus far? I can only hope so.

Projection: Taylor Tunnels < [default name] (52.7%)

10 Cent Beer Night

The owners of Under the Influwentz are scrambling for gimmicks to bring in fans as they walk toward one of the most lopsided matchups this week. There isn’t much to say other than acknowledging UTI is outmatched at all positions except for WR, which doesn’t bode well for his chances at a win this week. The GM of Kamara Kart Double Dash should take the week off and start watching film for Week 8, it’ll be more helpful than taking time to prepare for his Week 7 bout.

Projection: Under the Influwentz < Kamara Kart Double Dash (66.9%)

Fantasy Day Trader vs. I See Your Value Now

In a shock to this writer, Koo d’éCarr’s management has been one of the more active trading partners for the league this season. With a team he can be proud of, the GM of the team faces down an organization trying to clear a path toward the playoffs. Without an enormous mistake on the waiver wire tonight, Koo d’éCarr has all of the opportunity to get to a record above .500.

A tale of two trading teams brings us to the other side of this matchup, where other GMs have seen the value in players that the Greendale Human Beings have developed and taken them for their own gain just before big weeks. I have faith that the analytics department for this organization has grand projections, but without a win in the next two weeks, it might be time to look toward next season.

Projection: Koo d’éCarr > Greendale Human Beings (54.9%)

Everything must Go vs. For Real This Year

The Front Office of Dad’s Team has flirted with success every season, but this year they seem to have it down. Nearly a lock for the playoffs already, this squad is poised to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Barely even a blip on their radar, Dad’s Team’s opponent this week is preparing their hibernation before next season. If you’re out of the running this year and are looking to acquire a keeper, take a look through Team Jeffyoder’s IR slots and see if something would fit nicely on your roster next season.

Projection: Dad’s Team > Team Jeffyoder (57.6%)

This was a very stats-heavy edition of the newsletter, and if you’ve made it this far, I appreciate it.

Good luck to all.