First and foremost, I want to apologize for my leave of absence. Now that I have finished mourning the Indians’ postseason hopes and the Rays seem to have a handle on the Astros, I can finally turn my attention back to what actually matters: this league.
We are fully into the second quarter of the fantasy season and both frontrunners and underdogs have made themselves known. Injuries continue to be a factor, but trades between organizations in this league have kept many teams afloat and competitive in spite of all forces working to the contrary. That said, if you haven’t secured 2 top-15 QBs at this point in the season, start figuring out how to acquire draft picks for next season, because your hopes at the championship are all but over.
Perfect predictions incoming.
Playoff Odds heading into Week 6:
| PROJ. RANK | TEAM | CURRENT RECORD | PROJ. RECORD | RANK CHANGE | PLAYOFF ODDS | CHAMPION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | [default name] | 5-0 | 9-4 | — | >99% | 13% |
| 2 | Taylor Tunnels | 4-1 | 8-5 | — | 95% | 13% |
| 3 | Koo d’éCarr | 3-2 | 7-6 | +1 | 91% | 15% |
| 4 | Kamara Kart Double Dash | 3-2 | 7-6 | -1 | 87% | 11% |
| 5 | Dad’s Team | 3-2 | 7-6 | +1 | 86% | 12% |
| 6 | With Lamarms Wide Open | 3-2 | 7-6 | -1 | 84% | 10% |
| 7 | Staff(ord) of Power | 2-3 | 6-7 | +2 | 70% | 9% |
| 8 | Kyler? I hardly know her | 2-3 | 6-7 | -1 | 63% | 5% |
| 9 | Under the Influwentz | 2-3 | 5-8 | -1 | 44% | 4% |
| 10 | It’s Miller Time | 1-4 | 5-8 | — | 43% | 5% |
| 11 | Greendale Human Beings | 1-4 | 4-9 | — | 19% | 1% |
| 12 | jeffyoder | 1-4 | 4-9 | — | 19% | 1% |
The schism between the haves and the have-nots grows every day in our league. Charlie’s stranglehold on the regular season championship seems unshakeable with the duo of Josh Allen and Jared Goff. Shockingly, Team Jeff Yoder is 4 points higher in the power rankings than Greendale Human Beings for the rest of the season, giving the ill-fated team a legitimate chance to finish above 12th place this season. If he ever joins the slack channel, I’m sure the GM will be encouraged by this revelation.
Fuel for the Fire
As we enter the truly impactful weeks of the season where playoff births are won and lost, it’s always fun to analyze how teams would perform in other realities. The table below shows each team’s success against all teams through week 5:
| Team | Record | Against All |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler? I hardly know her | 2-3 | 42-13 |
| [default name] | 5-0 | 36-19 |
| Koo d’éCarr | 3-2 | 36-19 |
| Kamara Kart Double Dash | 3-2 | 35-20 |
| With Lamarms Wide Open | 3-2 | 34-21 |
| Taylor Tunnels | 4-1 | 28-27 |
| Dad’s Team | 3-2 | 25-30 |
| It’s Miller Time | 1-4 | 25-30 |
| Under the Influwentz | 2-3 | 20-35 |
| Staff(ord) of Power | 2-3 | 20-35 |
| Greendale Human Beings | 1-4 | 17-38 |
| jeffyoder | 1-4 | 12-43 |
We can see that Taylor Tunnels has had the easiest schedule thus far, and that had Dak Prescott not been injured during week 5, KIHKH would be poised to go undefeated through the rest of the season.
As I was looking into the stats for these records, I noticed an interesting trend between points scored and teams with top-12 QBs: 9 of the top 12 QBs are rostered by the top 6 scoring teams.
| Team | Points For | # Top 12 QBs |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler? I hardly know her | 754.05 | 2 |
| Kamara Kart Double Dash | 730.4 | 1 |
| Koo d’éCarr | 727 | 1 |
| [default name] | 717.6 | 2 |
| With Lamarms Wide Open | 710.9 | 1 |
| It’s Miller Time | 665 | 2 |
| Taylor Tunnels | 662.1 | 1 |
| Dad’s Team | 634.25 | 0 |
| Under the Influwentz | 628.7 | 1 |
| Staff(ord) of Power | 621.3 | 0 |
| Greendale Human Beings | 597.5 | 0 |
| jeffyoder | 590.25 | 1 |
Point Totals preceed winning records more often than not, and the key to winning in a 2QB league seems to be to have two top-12 QBs. Keep that in mind as we prepare for next season, and for those of us without top-12 QBs, hope that your playoff seedings set you up against other unfortunate souls so that you can survive the gauntlet for more than one week.
There’s a point to be made here about skewing the league so far towards one position group, and one with so few options available, but I’ll make that during the rules discussion for next season. #EmbraceDebate
That’s about as much passive-aggressive complaining as I need to do in my post this week, so let’s get to the matchups.
The Reunion Tour
We kick off our Week 6 preview with a matchup between former champions of the league: Staff(ord) of Power vs. With Lamarms Wide Open.
Both managers have shown that they have what it takes to win it all. They know how to make trades and were even able to get one done before their game this week. Both squads seem capable of victory and have undergone multiple shakeups in the last few days. Will Staff(ord) of Power lose to a player he traded to his opponent for a second week in a row? Probably not. Probably.
Projection: Staff(ord) of Power > With Lamarms Wide Open (55%)
For Mawhom the Bell Tolls
Lev’Bell
In one move by Adam Gase, he not only disappointed fans of the Jets, but elevated Kamara Kart Double Dash’s fantasy prospects and torpedoed the Team-who-shall-not-be-named’s RB2.
A staunch “Stats are for nerds” guy, the GM of the Richert Alliance refuses to consider trading away any assets on his team, and much like the orchestra on the titanic will sink slowly – then quickly – into mediocrity during the second half of the fantasy season. Saved only by the stable of QBs on his team, will the addition of Bell to the Chiefs be enough to bring a loss to the only remaining undefeated team in our league? The projections say no, so unfortunately I have to assume we will have a 6-0 leader after this week.
Projection: Team Crichert1 > Kamara Kart Double Dash (58.5%)
Fake Winning Record vs. Buyer’s Remorse
Under The Influwentz made several moves this week to shore up the holes in their team. Another member of the “Stats are for Nerds” camp, the GM of UTI made some trades that look bad on paper for his Rest-of-Season projections, but feel great. Much like Yami Yugi trusts in the “Heart of the Cards” in the syndicated series “Yu-Gi-Oh”, UTI’s manager is believing in his players, and I can respect a manager who isn’t a slave to power rankings.
Under the Influwentz will be going up against a 4-1 team that should be closer to 3-2 according to the All Opponent Records from above. Taylor Tunnels could make a statement this week with a sound victory over a sneakily competitive UTI team. This is definitely a matchup to look out for.
Projection: Under the Influwentz < Taylor Tunnels (57.4%)
Camrona-12 vs. Diontae Johnson’s Big Week
We all know that the writing staff of this newsletter is made up completely of Browns fans. That said, I know that the Browns’ secondary is as strong as Bran the Broken’s legs. For that reason, I’m going to break from the stats and say that as long as Diontae Johnson is healthy, he will carry Dad’s Team singlehandedly over the stalwart force of Koo d’éCarr.
Koo d’éCarr does get his newly-acquired QB1 back from the COVID-19 IR this week, and we will be able to see if Cam is able to shake off the rust of 2 weeks off faster than he was able to overcome his injuries last season.
EDIT: Within 20 minutes of writing this article, Diontae Johnson was ruled out of Sunday’s game. So there goes that prediction.
Projection: Dad’s Team < Koo d’éCarr (56%)
Send Out the Slack Link vs. 1 Meowmeow Bean
Two teams battle to get off the bottom of the league. It seems that not even the QB1 can keep a team afloat after it faces the injuries that Team Jeffyoder has sustained this season. Looking in on Friday afternoon, his starting RBs are projected to combine for 11 points total. I’m hoping for a miracle, and some life has been shown in the form of a trade this week.
The Greendale Human Beings has made significant improvements to their RB corps this week with the addition of Todd Gurley, but their starting lineup is in dire need of a big play in their Flex slot. The Human Beings will outperform their current power ranking but need a win this week to get back on track.
Projection: Greendale Human Beings > Team Jeffyoder (56%)
Went on a walking tour of Ladders in the offseason vs. It’s about Miller Time
Unbelievable. By all accounts, Kyler? I Hardly Know Her drafted correctly and should be at least 4-1 at this point in the season. The GM must have accrued enough bad luck to sink him for this season because I can’t explain it any other way. After losing the key to his high-scoring offense this week, the future looks grim for this former paragon of a team.
It’s Miller Time looks poised to become the fantasy team it has always meant to be this week as even through a Bye for several of his top players, his team looks as dangerous as any other. He has acquired depth at all positions, and now he has to hope for big games from each of them. It’s Miller Time’s matchup luck is only better than one other team in the league: his current opponent.
Projection: It’s Miller Time > Kyler? I Hardly Know Her (52.6%)
It feels great to be back this week. To echo what one owner in the league has said, the number of trades occuring is the sign of an extremely healthy league. Let’s keep this up.
Good luck to all.
Last Week is In the Books 